🔗 Share this article

Only two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – going beyond who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win while failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which election day turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, where Cuomo would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously went for Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over half. He has just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he does because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I think occurred significant tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think existed some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported Cuomo. So there was some opposition. However no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.