A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
