‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Stock.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now being felt in India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of cooking gas are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply isn't available," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are switching to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a fifth of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have depleted with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Authority's View

Yet, the authorities maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say stocks are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict impact energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those imports pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been caused by false reports. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.

According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through diversification. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the common threat of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's energy imports may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next gas canister.